Buckley vs Healy an attacking comparison
Last week I had a look at the defensive numbers since Liam Buckley took over as manager, this week I want to delve into the attacking numbers, to see what, if anything, they show us.
We are now eight games into Buckleys reign and the goal output is very very similar to the numbers we had under Colin Healy. In Healy’s thirteen games this season, we scored 15 goals, 1.15 GPG, Buckleys side have scored 9 in 8 for 1.13 GPG, so the difference is negligible. Both those figures see us sixth in the league, with Sligo and Drogheda both on 1.00, Shels on 0.95 and UCD 0.62, below us.
Under Colin we averaged 10.08 Shots per game (SPG). Since Liam Buckley came in those numbers have dropped to 8.75 SPG. So, our goal output has been maintained while having less SPG. Everyone is ok with that because as I said last week, we had to sacrifice offensively to ensure we could become more defensively stable. However, neither figure is in any way impressive, and i was surprised when i saw how low the number is under Buckley. The 10.08 SPG under Healy, would see us ranked 8th, with only an ultra defensive Shels and a really poor UCD side below us. Liam Buckleys 8.75 SPG is nearly three shots per game off the league average of 11.55 SPG and worringly sees only UCD ranked below us.
SOT give us another worrying insight, Colin Healys side averaged 4.62 SOT pg, placing them third in the league table, but as we will see in a minute, the big issue they had was turning those SOT into goals. Meanwhile Liam Buckleys charges now average 2.63 SOT pg, which sees them sit dead last in table just behind UCD. It will be hard to maintain a 1.13 GPG rate, nevermind increase it, when you are only having 8.75 SPG and 2.63 SOT. Most likely, there will come a time when the need to generate better offensive numbers will be evident.
Last week I spoke about the shot on target to goal conversion rate (SOTGCR) and how the 49% that Colin suffered from defensively had now dropped to 27% under Buckley. Well offensively both those numbers have flipped as well. We are now scoring from a league best, 43% of all the SOT we have, 9 goals from 21 SOT, under Colin that was 25%, which saw us level with Drogheda and just ahead of UCD with15 goals from 60 SOT. Again, in all likelihood we are creating better opportunities, but I would argue that scoring at a league high rate of 43% is unsustainable long term, especially from a league worst return of 2.63 SOT pg. If that figure dropped to a league average of 32%, under Liam Buckley then we would have scored 7 and not 9 goals, if it was running at the same rate as Colins 25%, then we would have scored 5. Derry away on Friday night was the first game since Shels at home on 10th September 2021, that we didn’t have a SOT.
Colin Healy undoubtably suffered from poor numbers at both ends of the pitch, the SOTGCR of 49% against us, would see any manager out of a job and when added to a 25% SOTGCR for us, its easy to see how we struggled for points. Im not going to lie, Liam Buckleys offensive SOTGCR of 43% will prove to be unsustainable long term, it’s a question of how much will it drop by and can the defensive SOTGCR rate of 27% be maintained? The indications are there that we need to create more, both in terms of SPG and SOT to avoid needing a statistical anomaly to ensure our future.
This may be one of those instances where a team is passing the eye test but the stats and numbers are telling us, that there may be issue's ahead.